SAP SE
SAP sells the program a company uses to keep orders and accounts, and a cloud subscription apart. They are not the same book. Oracle and Microsoft sell parts of the same trade. It is not the largest in Europe by decree. Changing the system is a project. It happens. The customer can leave.
A year of heavy migration to the cloud is not normal earnings. Maintenance of the program already installed does not move with the new subscription.
Cash is the licence and that subscription. The dividend has to fit. It is not a change that freezes the company.
"The advantage is the company already keeping its accounts on that program. They can switch. The moat narrows if the exit project gets done, or if the cloud falls and maintenance does not make it up."
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Health is the group's debt, not of a change that cannot be done. Quality separates the margin of the installed program from the cloud subscription. Growth follows cash collected, not a year of heavy migration. P/E is read against that year, not against that peak. Shareholder return is the dividend, checked against cash. Do not read it as the system that cannot be left.
The P/E of a year of heavy migration is not the earnings if the customer stays on the old program or leaves. EV/EBITDA is read without treating the cloud as if it had already replaced the licence. Do not use Oracle's multiple as if the installed program and the subscription were the same book. A dash if the SAP cache is cold.
Not advice on SAP. Vaultflake does not treat the group as the largest and does not treat the change as impossible. Read the filings. A past dividend is not a right. The table is a snapshot, not a target price.
The advantage is the company already keeping its accounts on that program. They can switch. The moat narrows if the exit project gets done, or if the cloud falls and maintenance does not make it up.
Health is the group's debt, not of a change that cannot be done. Quality separates the margin of the installed program from the cloud subscription. Growth follows cash collected, not a year of heavy migration. P/E is read against that year, not against that peak. Shareholder return is the dividend, checked against cash. Do not read it as the system that cannot be left.
The P/E of a year of heavy migration is not the earnings if the customer stays on the old program or leaves. EV/EBITDA is read without treating the cloud as if it had already replaced the licence. Do not use Oracle's multiple as if the installed program and the subscription were the same book. A dash if the SAP cache is cold.
Not advice on SAP. Vaultflake does not treat the group as the largest and does not treat the change as impossible. Read the filings. A past dividend is not a right. The table is a snapshot, not a target price.
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